As an example, I have spent an hour or so analyzing the markets so far this week. On Sunday I usually do this, before the market opens on Monday. I do my homework by checking my charts, catching up with any financial news over the weekend and I make my trade plan for the week ahead.  Once I have my plan in place, I then set orders for any currency pairs that I wish to trade at the market open. We need to wait for the market to open before orders can be set, since orders cannot be placed on the platform over the weekend while the market is closed. Once my order is set, with a predetermined stop loss and take profit (target), I can then walk away from my trading platform and let the market take it’s course.

These are the current orders that I placed at the market open this week and why:

GBPUSD
Long
Daily Chart
Entry:  1.6540
Stop Loss:  1.6502
Target:  1.6822
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:7

We are still in a channel with price looking like it will once again bounce off the lower trendline. I have my order set to buy at 1.6540 as this is also the area of 61.8% fib and 55 ema. My stop loss is set for below the 78.6% fib and the trendline. My target is set at the previous high. As you can see, this has an excellent risk to reward ratio of 1:7. So a “must set” order in my view.

You may also be able to see my trade I placed from last week. I bought after the previous touch of the trendline and have now closed half the trade with an 80 pip profit, leaving the balance to run to my ultimate target, with potentially an overall 317 pip profit. Stop is now moved to entry, meaning this is now a risk free trade

USDCHF

Short
Weekly Chart
Entry:  0.8980
Stop Loss:  0.9085
Target:  0.8700
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:2

As you can see from this weekly chart, there is a trendline in place since the middle of last year. This trendline is also intersecting with a support / resistance line (which also happens to be a whole number) at 0.9000. Another reason to take this trade around the 0.9000 price is that it is also 61.8% fib retracement. Therefore, multiple reasons to set an order for this trade. Set and then forget.

USDJPY

Long
Weekly & Daily Chart
Entry:  102.80
Stop Loss:  101.85
Target:  105.23
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:2.5

With a confirmed triangle break on the daily chart, I am hoping to catch the move on the pullback. In anticipation of this pullback, I have placed an order to buy at 102.80, which is just above the 200 monthly ema, & 55 daily ema. I have placed my stop loss just below the bottom line of the triangle with my target at the recent highs.

EURGBP

Short
Weekly Chart
Entry:  0.8337
Stop Loss:  0.8410
Target:  0.8090
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:3

The EURGBP on the weekly is also in a channel. I have my order set to sell this pair at the area where the trendline, 200 ema & 55 ema intersect – ie. multiple reasons. My stop loss is placed above the trendline & above the most recent highs. My target is set for the lower trendline of the channel, which also happens to be a previous area of support & resistance.

Let’s see what price has in-store for us on these currency pairs over the next week. If any of these areas fail, I will be able to initiate my back-up plan, however, the charts shown here are my 1^st choice trade options.

Happy trading during your 4-Hour work week!

Jackie

The post Forex Trade Plan – Week Beginning 7 April 2014 appeared first on View from the Forex Office.....

Which pairs do I have on my “gift list” leading up to Christmas? Check them out below…

EURJPY
Monthly Chart
At significant level 138.15
Buy above this level & sell below

Price is currently at highs not seen since 2009. This is hugely significant and I am certainly expecting a reaction at this level. I will wait for a close above this level to buy, or if price fails at this level I will check smaller time frames for reasons to take a counter trend short.

USDJPY
Monthly Chart
Approaching monthly 200 ema at 103.00
At significant level 101.65 which goes back to April 2009

Similarly the USDJPY is approaching huge levels like the EURJPY. I will conservatively wait for a clear close above the 200 ema (the green line located at 103.00) to take a trade long. Alternatively, if price fails at this level, or earlier at the 101.65 significant level, I will look on smaller time frames for reasons to short.

EURGBP
Monthly Chart
Short below 0.8300

This pair is in a clear downtrend, so I will look to short if price closes below 0.8300, which is previous support and is the 55 ema. Once price closes below this level there are no road blocks in the way, so I expect price to retest the 0.7755 area, potentially some 545 pips profit. Alternatively if price fails to close below 0.8300, look on smaller time frames for an entry to go long and catch a bounce back up.

USDCAD
Monthly Chart
Long above 1.0650

Price is approaching a level not seen since October last year. If it breaks this level at 1.0650 and closes above, I will be looking for entries on smaller time frames to enter long. There is nothing but air above this level, so price has the potential to get all the way to 1.1650 ie. 1,000 pips!! How would that be for a welcome New Year’s gift?

Enjoy the lead up to Christmas and here’s hoping we can all get a share of the pips for some welcome holiday spending money

Jackie

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This patience can certainly pay off, as was evidenced recently with the USDJPY triangle break. You may recall my blog post on 21st October in which I was patiently waiting for a potential 980 pip move after a break of the triangle on the weekly chart. I sat on my hands and patiently waited for the break to happen. The break was confirmed the week of 3 November and I entered the trade long. Currently that trade is up some 350 pips and is still rallying. See how patience can pay off I am still in this trade and have taken some profits off the table and am leaving the remainder of the trade to run. My target is set to take the remaining profits at 103.70. Let’s see how the trade progresses…

Bring on the pips!
Jackie

The post Patience is a Virtue appeared first on View from the Forex Office.....

I hope you were cautious also and didn’t let NFP spoil your week last week

Let’s take a look at our trading week ahead for this week…

EURUSD
Long @ 1.3640

I am not interested to long the EURUSD at it’s current price. I expect there will be some profit taking on this pair after it’s recent move up last week, and MACD divergence is in play also. If price gets back down to 1.3640 I will however be looking to take a long – for multiple reasons… This level is 50% fib, intersection of trendline and support & resistance line.

GBPUSD
Long @ 1.6070, or if fails here then
Long @ 1.6000

Fundamentally this pair is looking healthier than the EURUSD and technically it looks bullish also. I will be looking to long at the 1.6070 area which is 50% fib, weekly trendline and the monthly 55 ema is just below also, ie. multiple reasons. If price fails at this level, then I will definitely be looking to long at 1.6000.

AUDUSD
Short @ .9600
Long @ .9400

MACD divergence is indicating that this pair is in for a fall. Price has also closed below the daily trendline, 200ema and also the whole number of .9600. I will wait for a pullback to .9600 on the daily before entering the trade short.

The next area I will be looking to trade on this pair will be to long at .9400. This is previous support, it is an important whole number and it also intersects with the 55ema.

USDJPY
Weekly – Triangle Break

I am still watching this pair for a potential triangle break, which could potentially reward us with a 1,000 pip move. This was discussed in last week’s post. Patiently watching and waiting…

I would love to hear from you! If you have any comments, suggestions or want help with anything, please let me know.

Happy trading!

Jackie

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EURUSD
Chart – Weekly & Daily
Short @ 1.3715
Target @ 1.3559
Stop Loss @ 1.3720
Risk:Reward = 1:3

Long @ 1.3400
Target @ 1.3559
Stop Loss @ 1.3325
Risk:Reward = 1:2

As the price heads towards the recent high of 1.3715 on the weekly chart, I am looking for reasons to go short. This is as important level on the weekly chart and I am certainly expecting a reaction at this point. The daily chart from last Friday resulted in a doji candle near this level, so I have used this as extra confirmation that price is struggling to get through 1.3715 and there could potentially be a bounce back down from this area.

I entered the trade this morning with my stop just above at 1.3720. My target is at the 23.6% fib area, which is where I expect price to first react. There is an excellent 1:3 risk to reward ratio with this trade, so another good reason to take the trade.

Of course assuming there is a bounce back down, the area which I will definitely be looking to enter the trade long is at the yellow highlighted area – this area at 1.3400 is also 50% fib, support, whole number, 55 ema, trendline and bollinger ie. MULTIPLE REASONS. Of course price may not quite get that far south and may resume it’s bull run at the 38.2% fib area (1.3472), so watch smaller time frames for reactions here.

USDCHF
Chart – weekly
Long @ 0.9000
Target 1 @ 0.9260
Target 2 @ 0.9400
Stop Loss @ 0.8925
Risk:Reward 1 = 1:3
Risk:Reward 2 = 1:5

Price has continued to hold at 0.9000 since April last year. I expect it to hold again at this level, so will be looking for reasons to enter long ie. I will be looking for candle formations and extra reasons on smaller time frames.  The overall potential risk:reward on this trade is a very impressive 1:5, so a good enough reason to take the trade also.

USDJPY
POTENTIAL 980 PIP MOVE BREWING…
Chart – Weekly
Triangle Break

I will be looking over the coming weeks for a potential triangle break which has the potential to result in a move of 980 pips. Of course, this could break either above or below, however, my bias is for it to break above.  Keep this one on your radar over the next little while.

WARNING:
The craziest day in the Forex news calendar – aka non-farm payroll – is happening tomorrow.  Usually this news comes out on the first Friday of every month. However, due to the US shutdown, the release of this all important jobs number has been delayed until tomorrow. This news announcement can cause wild swings in the market, so the safest bet is to wait until after the news announcement before entering trades. Keep an eye on www.forexfactory.com for up to the minute news announcements.

Take care out in the news mine field this week.

Happy trading
Jackie

The post Trading Analysis for Week of 21st October appeared first on View from the Forex Office.....

I have a couple of trades on my radar. These particular trades follow a simple trend trading system. I affectionately call it my “Pip Generator” strategy. Basically, once a trend is in place, you wait for a retracement back into the ema’s and then enter the trade based on candlestick formations. If there is extra confluence with a support or resistance level, this will give you additional reasons to take the trade. The following examples will show you what trades I have my eye on over the next few days and where I will be looking to enter them.

USDCHF

4H Chart
Short
Pip Generator Strategy

I will look for a bearish candle set up ie. pin-bar reversal or doji candle, upon the close of the 4 hour candles.  If one of these bearish candle formations appears within the 10 & 21 ema channel, then I will look for extra confluence with the resistance line at .9289. As this pair opened with a gap this morning, it is more than likely that this gap will be filled, so I am anticipating price moving up towards this .9289 line.  When it does, and if there is a good candlestick formation, then I will enter the trade on the close of the 4 hour candle. The area I will be looking to short this pair is highlighted in yellow. This is a longer term trading system, so I will be prepared to hold this trade for a few days, or longer, if the trend remains in place.

EURUSD

4H Chart
Long
Pip Generator Strategy

When price retraces back within the 10 & 21 emas and has the extra confluence of the 1.3300 support level, I will look for a bullish candle formation at the close of the 4 hour candles. Once again, I am looking to enter long at the yellow highlighted area if a bullish candle formation appears. My target will be the resistance level at 1.3394.

GBPUSD

4H Chart
Long
Pip Generator Strategy

I will look for a retracement back into the 10 & 21 emas and also with the support level of 1.5834 as confluence.  The highlighted area is the area I will be looking for a bullish candle formation to enter this long.

USDJPY

Daily Chart
Long @ 98.66
Target 1 @ 100.00
Target 2 @ 100.56
Stop Loss @ 98.24
Risk:Reward = 1:3

I will be looking to buy the UDJPY at 98.66 as it is a support level, 50% fib and 55 ema ie. multiple reasons.  Stop Loss is just below 61.8% fib and the trendline. The risk to reward ratio for target 1 is 1:3 and for target 2 is 1:4.5, so extra reasons to take the trade.

AUDJPY

Daily Chart
Long @ 90.00
Target 1 @ 91.82
Target 2 @ 93.50
Stop Loss @ 89.10
Risk:Reward 1 = 1:2
Risk:Reward 2 = 1:4

Reasons for this trade:  strong support level, whole number, 50% fib

These should be enough trade ideas to get you started for the beginning of the week. I will update you as the week progresses.

Happy Trading!

Jackie

The post Trades on my radar for this week… appeared first on View from the Forex Office.....

NZDUSD

Sell @ .8065
Initial Target = .8000
Stop Loss = .8088
Risk:Reward = 1:4

Reasons for trade:  at 78.6% fib, 200 ema on daily, 55 ema on weekly, great risk to reward ratio

I will enter the trade from the 4 hour chart based on bearish candle formations.

Alternative:  If this pair fails to hold at the .8078 level, I will wait for a clear break above this level, followed by a pullback, to go long. My target for this trade will be .8160

GBPUSD

Long @ 1.5600
Target = 1.5747
SL = 1.5560
Risk:Reward = 1:3.6

Reasons:  intersection of trendline, support line, 23.6% fib and is a whole number, great risk to reward ratio

USDJPY

Long @ 100.00
Target 1 = 100.84
Target 2 = 101.52
SL = 99.59
Risk:Reward Target 1 = 1:2
Risk:Reward Target 2 = 1:3.7

Reasons:  break of support followed by pullback, major support line, whole number, 23.6% fib just below

Let’s see how the week pans out now that some of the momentum is returning to the markets.

Happy trading!

Jackie

The post Trade Plan for Week of 9 September appeared first on View from the Forex Office.....

As life is reverting back to some form of normality here, it’s time to get my trading back into my normal routine also.  My trading plan for the week ahead is as follows:

AUDJPY

Daily Chart / End of Day Trade / Short

I love this “end of day” strategy.  The set ups may not appear frequently, however, when they do you can usually set your order and walk away.  Great for those working full  time and who may only have a small amount of time for trading. The ideal set up for this strategy is depicted in the chart below – the pair is trending, the previous day’s candle is a doji which is located within the upper 2 envelopes, the 5 ema is below the 20 ema and the 200 ema.  As soon as the daily candle closes, I set my order – green = entry, red = stop loss, gold = target

ie Entry at 88.71, Stop at 89.48 and target at 87.50

I see there is no news due out over the next day which could affect my trade, I set my order as above and walk away.

EURUSD

4 Hour Chart / Long / Triangle Break

I will be looking for an entry long after the break of the triangle on the 4 hourly chart – around 1.3380.  I will wait for a pullback to this level before entering.  This area is also a weekly pivot point.  My stop will be just below the 55 ema with my target being the recent high.

These are two trades which I have on my radar for the start of the week.  If I have some other trades lining up for the latter part of the week I will provide further details in another post.

Bring on the pips!

Happy trading

Jackie

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