I hope you were cautious also and didn’t let NFP spoil your week last week

Let’s take a look at our trading week ahead for this week…

EURUSD
Long @ 1.3640

I am not interested to long the EURUSD at it’s current price. I expect there will be some profit taking on this pair after it’s recent move up last week, and MACD divergence is in play also. If price gets back down to 1.3640 I will however be looking to take a long – for multiple reasons… This level is 50% fib, intersection of trendline and support & resistance line.

GBPUSD
Long @ 1.6070, or if fails here then
Long @ 1.6000

Fundamentally this pair is looking healthier than the EURUSD and technically it looks bullish also. I will be looking to long at the 1.6070 area which is 50% fib, weekly trendline and the monthly 55 ema is just below also, ie. multiple reasons. If price fails at this level, then I will definitely be looking to long at 1.6000.

AUDUSD
Short @ .9600
Long @ .9400

MACD divergence is indicating that this pair is in for a fall. Price has also closed below the daily trendline, 200ema and also the whole number of .9600. I will wait for a pullback to .9600 on the daily before entering the trade short.

The next area I will be looking to trade on this pair will be to long at .9400. This is previous support, it is an important whole number and it also intersects with the 55ema.

USDJPY
Weekly – Triangle Break

I am still watching this pair for a potential triangle break, which could potentially reward us with a 1,000 pip move. This was discussed in last week’s post. Patiently watching and waiting…

I would love to hear from you! If you have any comments, suggestions or want help with anything, please let me know.

Happy trading!

Jackie

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Sunday is a day when I generally reflect on the past week’s trading and plan ahead for the coming week.  This has certainly been a somber week of reflection and a week which I hope, for the sake of the Egyptian people, is not repeated.  Wednesday 14 August 2013 is a day which will play out in my mind for some time to come.  As a State of Emergency is declared across Egypt, I reflect on my day in the office that day and share with you my actual views from the office.  My office (aka home / hotel apartment) is located approximately 2 km from Rabba Al Adiwya Mosque in the Nasr City district of Cairo.  The same Rabaa Al Adiwya Mosque that has been the main location for the pro-Morsi supporters sit-in for the past 6 weeks.  The link from Google Maps below shows just how close our home is to the Rabaa Mosque:

http://goo.gl/maps/9QU5j

Scarily, my office view on 14 August consisted of thick black smoke billowing from the Rabaa Square area, cars in a nearby parking lot up in flames after being torched, and people running for their lives in the streets below as they tried to escape the ubiquitous bullets. The inundation of gunfire which was eventually to tragically end the lives of at least 700+ men, women and children in the neighbourhood that day.  This was the unfortunate scene for the entire day, since as I sat outside in the hotel courtyard for breakfast I was accompanied by the sounds of nearby gunfire even at that time of the morning. Retreating up to my office after breakfast, I was greeted with yet more gunfire echoing off the high-rise buildings surrounding the hotel.

The skype call from my mother and the rest of the Auckland South Breast Friends breast cancer support group was a welcome distraction.  When possible, the group will call me via skype during their monthly meetings so that I can still be a part of their evening of friendship, fun and support (when support is needed).  My beautiful mother, Annette, is one of the co-ordinators for the Auckland South group, having been a breast cancer survivor for almost 20 years. And although I had joined the group in support of my mum quite some years ago, I become a fully fledged and legitimate group member when I became a “bossom buddy” myself 4 years ago, upon being diagnosed with breast cancer also.

To be honest, I was unaware that the Breast Friends meeting was even on that night.  When I saw my mothers call come through, as it was earlier than our usual chat time,  I had assumed that she had just heard the news about the military “clear-out” of the protesters in Rabaa Square and the death and destruction that had resulted.  At the time when mum and the group called me, gunshots were going off thick and fast.  I, therefore, apologise ladies if I was a little distracted at that particular time!  Although I have heard gunfire in our area before, it has never been in the middle of the day, resounding through the streets with such constant and frequent abandon.  Ladies, I am sorry if this destructive background noise was a little overwhelming.  It certainly was for me too!

Below is actual video footage taken by yours truly, from our hotel, on that fateful day…

As we are reflecting on the week that has just passed, now is the time that I reflect on the trading week also.  A midst all this chaos, I managed to enter 2 of the trades that I had on my radar from last week…  AUDUSD & EURUSD.  Here’s how they played out…

I sold the AUDUSD at .9153.  My entry, being on the 4 Hour chart, after the close through and pullback to the 200 ema.  I took this trade as there were multiple reasons:  resistance above, 78.2% fib just above, whole number, and 200 ema above.  Half the trade I closed at 30 pips profit. The 2nd half closed upon hitting my target at .9080 – 73 pips profit in total.  You can see on the chart why I chose this target – it was 55 ema, 50% fib and had the bollinger band holding price up – with these road blocks in the way, I was expecting the price to falter here, so an ideal target area.

My second trade was the EURUSD, in which I had set up an order to sell at 1.3277.  I set an order to sell this pair at this level because it was at the top edge of a weekly triangle, which was also the 200 ema on the weekly chart and 55 ema on monthly chart ie. plenty of reasons to “hold the price down”.  I set my order 13 August and it was triggered the next morning.  Trading in a conservative manner, I took half my profits at 34 pips, moved my stop to entry and left the remainder of the trade to run.  Although my target of 1.3179 wasn’t quite reached, this trade still had a total potential of 70+ pips profit before price retraced.

In summary of my abnormal and very chaotic trading week,  I still managed to take 2 of the trades which I had suggested you look out for in my previous post.  107 pips profit in total for the week.  I’m happy with that, since 100 pips is generally the weekly target for most traders.  Job done for the week, and in the space of 2 days

Hoping that next week brings calmer days for Cairo without the death and destruction of this week.

Stay safe my fellow Cairo readers!

All the best

Jackie

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