Apr 07

Forex Trade Plan – Week Beginning 7 April 2014

As we look to the trading week ahead, I see a few potential longer term trades setting up.  There are currency pairs which are approaching major areas on the weekly charts and / or daily charts.  I love these longer term set ups, as it means we have the chance to plan well in advance, set the order at the market open and then walk away.  I spent quite a bit of my early trading years staring at the screen all day long waiting for potential set ups on the smaller time frames. This was certainly no way to live, staring at chart patterns all day long!  I have now developed a more longer term approach to my trading, which means that I only need to be sat at my trading platform for a few hours a week.  Wahoo!  Bring on the 4-Hour work week!  Another advantage of this type of trading, is that it opens up the possibilities for almost anyone to make their foray into trading forex.  Whether you are a stay-at-home mum, with a few spare hours snatched here and there; a full-time employee who can only spare a couple of hours a week at the most for dedicating to trading; a student who is looking for any excuse to take a few hours off from study and potentially make money at the same time; or a retiree who wishes to keep your brain active, while adding to your pension fund, and still have the time to devote to your other favourite pursuits.  All of you should be able to easily find the time to at least spend an hour or so trading each week. A couple of hours work, for what potentially can be a lucrative part time income.

As an example, I have spent an hour or so analyzing the markets so far this week. On Sunday I usually do this, before the market opens on Monday. I do my homework by checking my charts, catching up with any financial news over the weekend and I make my trade plan for the week ahead.  Once I have my plan in place, I then set orders for any currency pairs that I wish to trade at the market open. We need to wait for the market to open before orders can be set, since orders cannot be placed on the platform over the weekend while the market is closed. Once my order is set, with a predetermined stop loss and take profit (target), I can then walk away from my trading platform and let the market take it’s course.

These are the current orders that I placed at the market open this week and why:

Daily Chart
Entry:  1.6540
Stop Loss:  1.6502
Target:  1.6822
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:7

GBPUSD Forex Daily Chart

We are still in a channel with price looking like it will once again bounce off the lower trendline. I have my order set to buy at 1.6540 as this is also the area of 61.8% fib and 55 ema. My stop loss is set for below the 78.6% fib and the trendline. My target is set at the previous high. As you can see, this has an excellent risk to reward ratio of 1:7. So a “must set” order in my view.

You may also be able to see my trade I placed from last week. I bought after the previous touch of the trendline and have now closed half the trade with an 80 pip profit, leaving the balance to run to my ultimate target, with potentially an overall 317 pip profit. Stop is now moved to entry, meaning this is now a risk free trade :-)


Weekly Chart
Entry:  0.8980
Stop Loss:  0.9085
Target:  0.8700
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:2

USDCHF Weekly Chart

As you can see from this weekly chart, there is a trendline in place since the middle of last year. This trendline is also intersecting with a support / resistance line (which also happens to be a whole number) at 0.9000. Another reason to take this trade around the 0.9000 price is that it is also 61.8% fib retracement. Therefore, multiple reasons to set an order for this trade. Set and then forget.


Weekly & Daily Chart
Entry:  102.80
Stop Loss:  101.85
Target:  105.23
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:2.5

USDCHF Weekly Chart

With a confirmed triangle break on the daily chart, I am hoping to catch the move on the pullback. In anticipation of this pullback, I have placed an order to buy at 102.80, which is just above the 200 monthly ema, & 55 daily ema. I have placed my stop loss just below the bottom line of the triangle with my target at the recent highs.


Weekly Chart
Entry:  0.8337
Stop Loss:  0.8410
Target:  0.8090
Risk / Reward Ratio:  1:3

EURGBP Weekly Chart

The EURGBP on the weekly is also in a channel. I have my order set to sell this pair at the area where the trendline, 200 ema & 55 ema intersect – ie. multiple reasons. My stop loss is placed above the trendline & above the most recent highs. My target is set for the lower trendline of the channel, which also happens to be a previous area of support & resistance.

Let’s see what price has in-store for us on these currency pairs over the next week. If any of these areas fail, I will be able to initiate my back-up plan, however, the charts shown here are my 1st choice trade options.

Happy trading during your 4-Hour work week!





Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Mar 31

Screw it, Let’s Do it!

Where the hell has 2014 gone? Scarily a quarter of the year has gone by already, and if you’re like me, you may be thinking that now is a good time to reassess your goals that you set for yourself at the beginning of the year.  Even if you didn’t set specific goals exactly, maybe you had a few New Year resolutions that you toyed with the idea of accomplishing as you began the first day of the New Year…  Loose a few kilos, further your education, look for ways to earn an additional income, spend more quality time with your family. Whatever your good intentions were, how are you going so far? Have you even made a start towards achieving them, or are these goals now long forgotten?

Napoleon Hill Quote (sig)

Do you even have any goals written down? Many of us are familiar with setting performance objectives with related KPI’s as a yearly task undertaken during our employment. Motivated by our employer’s promise of receiving a bonus if we achieve our objectives, we are usually all proactive at formulating our work related goals. But what about your personal goals? How many of you spend the same amount of time that you would on your employment objectives, thinking about and then formally setting your own personal objectives?

If you are guilty of neglecting to set your own personal goals, how about we make ourselves a priority and make a start together. After all YOU are “Number One”. Don’t you owe it to yourself to put yourself first and devote some of your valuable time to your own personal development?

You have the ability to write your own life story. Pretty exciting eh? Let’s do it!…

It is easier to set your goals on a number of levels:

First, create your “grand dream goals”. This is where you create your “big picture” of what you want to do with your life (over say the next 5, 10 years), and identify the grand dream lifetime goals that you want to achieve.  These goals need to be on a grand scale, so don’t be shy, think BIG. As an example, one of my grand dream goals is to own a large villa in Italy (complete with winery, since I’m rather partial to a glass of red) where we can host our family and friends and enjoy “la dolce vita”.

Italian Villa

These are then broken down into the smaller, more manageable targets that you need to achieve in order to reach your lifetime goals. Finally, once you have your overall plan, you can start working on it to ultimately achieve your grand dream goals.

We start the process by using the “top down” approach. We should firstly look at what our grand dream goals are, then we start to work our way down to what we could possibly achieve in the next 10 years, 5 years, one year, next month, next week, so we can start moving towards them.

Tip: Breaking down your yearly goals into 90 day cycles of achievement can be very effective.

For example, if your goal is to be able to lose 5 kgs in weight, do not focus on this overall goal. Break it down into bite sized chunks (no pun intended ;-) ) and aim to lose 416 grams a week for the next 12 weeks. This will be a lot easier to manage and will increase your chances of success massively.

Re-evaluate your current goal after the 90 days (12 weeks) has expired.

As another example, if your goal was to “earn an additional income of $500+ per week”, you would need to initially start by making a plan…

Additional Income Plan:

  1. Set a target – how much extra do you want to earn per week?
  2. Research various income generating ideas
  3. How much time can you devote each week to achieving your 2nd income?
  4. Would you prefer to earn this additional income working from home for yourself, or working for someone else at their premises?
  5. Do you require any additional skills or mentorship to assist you?
  6. If you really intend to succeed tell EVERYONE
  7. Set long term goals, ie. “I will replace my full-time income”
  8. Then set shorter term achievable goals “I will earn at least $100 per week additional income”
  9. Once this initial goals has been achieved, step it up to the next level, “I will earn at least $200 per week” etc
  10. Reward yourself when these milestones have been achieved

Step 1: Setting Your Grand Dream Goals

“As long as you are going to be thinking anyway, think big”- Donald Trump

The first step in setting personal goals is to consider what you want to achieve in your lifetime (or at least, by a significant age in the future). Setting lifetime goals gives you the overall perspective that shapes all other aspects of your decision making.

To give a broad, balanced coverage of all important areas in your life, try to set goals in some of the following categories (or in other categories of your own, where these are important to you):

  • Career & Business – What level do you want to reach in your career, or what do you want to achieve?
  • Do you want to start your own business? If so what type and how?
  • Financial – How much do you want to earn, by what stage? How is this related to your career goals?
  • Education – Is there any knowledge you need to acquire in particular? What information, skills or mentorship will you need to have in order to achieve other goals?
  • Family – Do you want to be a parent? If so, how are you going to be a good parent? How do you want to be seen by a partner or by members of your extended family?
  • Artistic – Do you want to achieve any artistic goals?
  • Attitude – Is any part of your mindset holding you back?
  • Is there any part of the way that you behave that upsets you? (If so, set a goal to improve your behaviour or find a solution to the problem.)
  • Physical – Are there any athletic goals that you want to achieve, or do you simply want good health well into old age? What steps are you going to take to achieve this?
  • Pleasure – How do you want to enjoy your spare time? Do you want to travel? Would you like to pursue a new recreational activity ie. Learn to play golf? (You should ensure that some of your life is for you!)

Spend some time brainstorming these ideas, and then select one or more goals in each category that best reflect what you want to do. Next, you should consider trimming this again so that you have a small number of really significant goals that you can focus on.

As you go through this process, ensure that the goals that you have set are ones that you genuinely want to achieve.  These should not be goals that your parents, family, or employers might want. Taking into consideration what your partner also wants is a good idea – however, make sure that you still remain true to yourself!

Productivity studies show that most people can’t focus on more than 5-7 items at any one time. Therefore, don’t try to take on too many things with a long list of objectives. Focus on a handful of objectives – the ones you care about most – and the ones that you can almost repeat from memory.

Step 2: Setting Smaller Goals

Once you have set your grand dream goals, set a five-year plan of smaller goals that you need to complete if you are to reach your lifetime plan.

Then create a one-year plan, six-month plan, and a one-month plan of progressively smaller goals that you should reach in order to achieve your grand dream goals. Each of these should be based on the previous plan. Then create a daily To-Do List of things that you should do today to work ultimately towards your grand dream goals.

Early on, your smaller goals might be to read books and gather information on the achievement of your higher level goals. You may also want to undertake courses, or find a mentor who can help direct you along your chosen pathway. Finally, review your plans, and make sure that they fit the way in which you want to live your life. Remember that you are ultimately the one writing your own life story, so write it well!

Staying on Course

Once you’ve decided on your first set of goals, keep the process going by reviewing and updating your To-Do List on a daily or weekly basis. Have you achieved this week’s goals? If not, why not, and what do you need to do to get back on track?

Periodically review the longer term plans, and modify them to reflect your changing priorities and experience.


A useful way of making goals more powerful is to use the SMART mnemonic. While there are plenty of variants, SMART usually stands for:

S – Specific (or Significant).
M – Measurable (or Meaningful).
A – Attainable (or Action-Oriented).
R – Relevant (or Rewarding).
T – Time-bound (or Trackable).


Goals should be straightforward and emphasize what you want to happen. Specifics help us to focus our efforts and clearly define what we are going to do.

Specific is the What, Why, and How of the SMART model. WHAT are you going to do? Use action words such as direct, organise, co-ordinate, lead, develop, plan, build etc. WHY is this important to do at this time? What do you want to ultimately accomplish? HOW are you going to do it? (By…?)

Ensure the goals you set are very specific, clear and easy. Instead of setting a goal to “lose weight” or “be healthier”, set a specific goal to “lose 2cm off your waistline” or to “walk 5 km at an aerobically challenging pace”.


If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it. In the broadest sense, the whole goal statement is a measure for the project; if the goal is accomplished, then it is a success. However, there are usually several short-term or small measurements that can be built into the goal.

Choose a goal with measurable progress, so you can see the change occur. How will you see when you reach your goal? Be specific! “I want to read all the books in Lisa’s library before the end of the year” shows the specific target to be measured. “I want to read more” is not as measurable.

Establish concrete criteria for measuring progress toward the attainment of each goal you set. When you measure your progress, you stay on track, reach your target dates, and experience the exhilaration of achievement that spurs you on to continued effort required to reach your goals.


When you identify goals that are most important to you, you begin to figure out ways you can make them come true. You develop the attitudes, abilities, skills, and financial capacity to reach them. You begin seeing previously overlooked opportunities to bring yourself closer to the achievement of your goals.

Goals you set which are too far out of your reach, you probably won’t commit to doing. Although you may start with the best of intentions, the knowledge that it’s too much for you means your subconscious will keep reminding you of this fact and will stop you from even giving it your best.

A goal needs to stretch you slightly so you feel you can do it and it will need a real commitment from you. For instance, if you aim to lose 5 kgs in one week, we all know that isn’t achievable. But setting a goal to loose 500 grams and when you’ve achieved that, aiming to lose a further 500 grams, will keep it achievable for you.

Reward Yourself

As you achieve a goal, then reward yourself with something special. Reward each small achievement. If it’s a big goal then when you are in the planning stage set the rewards also. “Once I achieve $1,000 sales a week I will take the family to Disneyland,” tell the family fi

rst, you now have created yourself a fan club AND someone to motivate you if things go astray. The feeling of success which this brings helps you to remain motivated.


This is not a synonym for easy. Realistic, in this case, means “do-able”. It means that the learning curve is not a vertical slope; that the skills needed to do the work are available; that the project fits with the overall strategy and goals of the organisation. A realistic project may push the skills and knowledge of the people working on it but it shouldn’t break them.

Devise a plan or a way of getting there which makes the goal realistic. The goal needs to be realistic for you and where you are at the moment. A goal of never again eating lollies, cakes, chips and chocolate may not be realistic for someone who really enjoys these foods.

For instance, it may be more realistic to set a goal of eating a piece of fruit each day instead of one sweet item. You can then choose to work towards reducing the amount of sweet products gradually as and when this feels realistic for you.

Be sure to set goals that you can attain with some effort! Too difficult and you set yourself up for failure, but too low sends the message that you aren’t very capable. Set the bar high enough for a satisfying achievement!


Set a time-frame for the goal: for next week, in three months, by the end of school. Putting an end point on your goal gives you a clear target to work towards.

If you don’t set a time, the commitment is too vague. It tends not to happen because you feel you can start at any time. Without a time limit, there’s no urgency to start taking action now.

Time must be measurable, attainable and realistic.

Everyone will benefit from goals and objectives if they are SMART.

Goal Setting Tips

The following broad guidelines will help you to set effective, achievable goals:

  • State each goal as a positive statement – Express your goals positively “Execute this technique well” is a much better goal than “Don’t make this stupid mistake.”
  • Be precise: Set precise goals, putting in dates, times and amounts so that you can measure achievement. If you do this, you’ll know exactly when you have achieved the goal, and can take complete satisfaction from having achieved it.
  • Set priorities – When you have several goals, give each a priority. This helps you to avoid feeling overwhelmed by having too many goals, and helps to direct your attention to the most important ones.
  • Write goals down – This crystallises them and gives them more force. It also helps if you fail to remember things like I do!
  • Keep operational goals small – Keep the low-level goals that you’re working towards small and achievable. If a goal is too large, then it can seem that you are not making progress towards it. Keeping goals small and incremental gives more opportunities for reward.
  • Set performance goals, not outcome goals – You should take care to set goals over which you have as much control as possible. It can be quite dispiriting to fail to achieve a personal goal for reasons beyond your control! In business, these reasons could be bad business environments or unexpected effects of government policy. In sport, they could include poor judging, bad weather, injury, or just plain bad luck.
  • If you base your goals on personal performance, then you can keep control over the achievement of your goals, and draw satisfaction from them.
  • Set realistic goals – It’s important to set goals that you can achieve. All sorts of people (for example, employers, parents, media, or society) can set unrealistic goals for you. They will often do this in ignorance of your own desires and ambitions.
  • It’s also possible to set goals that are too difficult because you might not appreciate either the obstacles in the way, or understand quite how much skill you need to develop to achieve a particular level of performance.
  • When you’ve achieved a goal, take the time to enjoy the satisfaction of having done so. Absorb the implications of the goal achievement, and observe the progress that you’ve made towards other goals.
  • If the goal was a significant one, reward yourself appropriately. All of this helps you build the self-confidence you deserve.
  • With the experience of having achieved this goal, review the rest of your goal plans:
  • If you achieved the goal too easily, make your next goal harder.
  • If the goal took a dispiriting length of time to achieve, make the next goal a little easier.
  • If you learned something that would lead you to change other goals, do so.
  • If you noticed a deficit in your skills despite achieving the goal, decide whether to set goals to fix this.
  • Failing to meet goals does not matter much, just as long as you learn from the experience.
  • Feed lessons learned back into your goal setting. Remember too that your goals will change as time goes on. Adjust them regularly to reflect growth in your knowledge and experience, and if goals do not hold any attraction any longer, consider letting them go.

You now have a choice…

  1. “This seems like a good idea but I don’t need it / I will do it tomorrow”
  2. “Too freaky, not for me”
  3. “Makes sense, I will give it a try.”

If you choose options 1 or 2 then I have lost you already.

If you choose option 3, don’t wait, do it now. By waiting, you run the risk of forgetting to do this at all and will potentially continue to drift along through life. Don’t let life dictate what it has planned for you. You dictate your own life story. Some advice from Richard Branson, which is also the title to his very inspirational autobiography…


If you do not like where you currently are or want to improve your prospects then give it a try, you have nothing to lose and plenty to gain!

I would love to hear what some of your goals are and how you are progressing. If you feel like sharing them, please do so by commenting below…

Here’s to creating your own life story!

Screw it, let’s do it!


Posted in Personal Development | Tagged , , | Leave a comment
Nov 30

Santa Claus Rally

As we are now on the downhill slide to Christmas, we are approaching some very significant levels on a few currency pairs. All of which have the potential to generate some lovely pre-Christmas forex goodies for us :-)

Which pairs do I have on my “gift list” leading up to Christmas? Check them out below…

blog - eurjpymonthly - 27.11.13EURJPY
Monthly Chart
At significant level 138.15
Buy above this level & sell below

Price is currently at highs not seen since 2009. This is hugely significant and I am certainly expecting a reaction at this level. I will wait for a close above this level to buy, or if price fails at this level I will check smaller time frames for reasons to take a counter trend short.

blog - usdjpymonthly - 27.11.13USDJPY
Monthly Chart
Approaching monthly 200 ema at 103.00
At significant level 101.65 which goes back to April 2009

Similarly the USDJPY is approaching huge levels like the EURJPY. I will conservatively wait for a clear close above the 200 ema (the green line located at 103.00) to take a trade long. Alternatively, if price fails at this level, or earlier at the 101.65 significant level, I will look on smaller time frames for reasons to short.

blog - eurgbpmonthly - 28.11.13EURGBP
Monthly Chart
Short below 0.8300

This pair is in a clear downtrend, so I will look to short if price closes below 0.8300, which is previous support and is the 55 ema. Once price closes below this level there are no road blocks in the way, so I expect price to retest the 0.7755 area, potentially some 545 pips profit. Alternatively if price fails to close below 0.8300, look on smaller time frames for an entry to go long and catch a bounce back up.

blog - usdcadmonthly - 28.11.13USDCAD
Monthly Chart
Long above 1.0650

Price is approaching a level not seen since October last year. If it breaks this level at 1.0650 and closes above, I will be looking for entries on smaller time frames to enter long. There is nothing but air above this level, so price has the potential to get all the way to 1.1650 ie. 1,000 pips!! How would that be for a welcome New Year’s gift?

Enjoy the lead up to Christmas and here’s hoping we can all get a share of the pips for some welcome holiday spending money :-)




Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Nov 27

Patience is a Virtue

When it comes to forex trading patience is certainly a virtue.  Especially if you are wanting to trade from the longer time frames. I have spent many hours a day, sometimes until the wee small hours of the night watching my screen. When I first launched into Day Trading, I spent many months trading up to 14 hours a day some days. I would sit in my office staring at my screen all day long waiting for the trades to happen, too scared to leave the room in case I missed a trade. It was a lonely existence and certainly not much of a life. Since then I have learnt to have more balance in my life and I now look for the more longer term trades on the longer time frame charts. I will plan my trades in advance through analysis of the monthly, weekly and daily charts and then have the ability to set my orders and walk away. I now have my life back! I have gone from trading on average 12 hours a day to about 1 hour a day – if that. Trading in this manner, however, means that you must exercise a lot of patience. Sometimes you can go days, if not weeks waiting for the ideal trade set up.

blog - usdjpyweekly - 27.11.13This patience can certainly pay off, as was evidenced recently with the USDJPY triangle break. You may recall my blog post on 21st October in which I was patiently waiting for a potential 980 pip move after a break of the triangle on the weekly chart. I sat on my hands and patiently waited for the break to happen. The break was confirmed the week of 3 November and I entered the trade long. Currently that trade is up some 350 pips and is still rallying. See how patience can pay off :-) I am still in this trade and have taken some profits off the table and am leaving the remainder of the trade to run. My target is set to take the remaining profits at 103.70. Let’s see how the trade progresses…

Bring on the pips!


Posted in Trade Reviews | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Oct 28

NFP – Don’t say I didn’t warn you

I hope you took advice from my warning last week regarding the non-farm payroll news announcement and stayed out of trades until after this news came out. Since technical areas certainly weren’t being respected after this news announcement! Technically the EURUSD was at a level early last week where price logically should have reacted and bounced back down. This was explained in detail in my previous blog post.  However, as soon as the worse than expected US jobs news came out, price skyrocketed and powered straight through our important resistance level at 1.3715. Based on this NFP news coming out, I did not enter the USDCHF trade long, as I was planning, and instead was waiting until after the news announcement. Being cautious saved my butt in this case!  Like the EURUSD, after the news came out price powered straight through our strong support/resistance level.

I hope you were cautious also and didn’t let NFP spoil your week last week :-)

Let’s take a look at our trading week ahead for this week…

Long @ 1.3640

eurusddaily - 28.10.13I am not interested to long the EURUSD at it’s current price. I expect there will be some profit taking on this pair after it’s recent move up last week, and MACD divergence is in play also. If price gets back down to 1.3640 I will however be looking to take a long – for multiple reasons… This level is 50% fib, intersection of trendline and support & resistance line.

Long @ 1.6070, or if fails here then
Long @ 1.6000

gbpusdweekly - 28.10.13Fundamentally this pair is looking healthier than the EURUSD and technically it looks bullish also. I will be looking to long at the 1.6070 area which is 50% fib, weekly trendline and the monthly 55 ema is just below also, ie. multiple reasons. If price fails at this level, then I will definitely be looking to long at 1.6000.


Short @ .9600
Long @ .9400

audusddaily - 28.10.13MACD divergence is indicating that this pair is in for a fall. Price has also closed below the daily trendline, 200ema and also the whole number of .9600. I will wait for a pullback to .9600 on the daily before entering the trade short.

The next area I will be looking to trade on this pair will be to long at .9400. This is previous support, it is an important whole number and it also intersects with the 55ema.

Weekly – Triangle Break

I am still watching this pair for a potential triangle break, which could potentially reward us with a 1,000 pip move. This was discussed in last week’s post. Patiently watching and waiting…

I would love to hear from you! If you have any comments, suggestions or want help with anything, please let me know.

Happy trading!






Posted in Trade Reviews, Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Oct 21

Trading Analysis for Week of 21st October

After spending the past month travelling – Dubai and Italy (more on that in a future post), and with the markets having to contend with the US Government shutdown and the looming US debt default crisis (luckily this ended up being averted at the very last minute), I took a break from trading. However, now back home in Cairo and newly refreshed after living “la doce vita” on the Amalfi Coast for the past week :-) , I share with you my trading analysis for the week ahead…

eurusdweekly - 21.10.13EURUSD
Chart – Weekly & Daily
Short @ 1.3715
Target @ 1.3559
Stop Loss @ 1.3720
Risk:Reward = 1:3

Long @ 1.3400
Target @ 1.3559
Stop Loss @ 1.3325
Risk:Reward = 1:2

As the price heads towards the recent high of 1.3715 on the weekly chart, I am looking for reasons to go short. This is as important level on the weekly chart and I am certainly expecting a reaction at this point. The daily chart from last Friday resulted in a doji candle near this level, so I have used this as extra confirmation that price is struggling to get through 1.3715 and there could potentially be a bounce back down from this area.

eurusddaily - 21.10.13I entered the trade this morning with my stop just above at 1.3720. My target is at the 23.6% fib area, which is where I expect price to first react. There is an excellent 1:3 risk to reward ratio with this trade, so another good reason to take the trade.

Of course assuming there is a bounce back down, the area which I will definitely be looking to enter the trade long is at the yellow highlighted area – this area at 1.3400 is also 50% fib, support, whole number, 55 ema, trendline and bollinger ie. MULTIPLE REASONS. Of course price may not quite get that far south and may resume it’s bull run at the 38.2% fib area (1.3472), so watch smaller time frames for reactions here.

usdchfweekly - 21.10.13USDCHF
Chart – weekly
Long @ 0.9000
Target 1 @ 0.9260
Target 2 @ 0.9400
Stop Loss @ 0.8925
Risk:Reward 1 = 1:3
Risk:Reward 2 = 1:5

Price has continued to hold at 0.9000 since April last year. I expect it to hold again at this level, so will be looking for reasons to enter long ie. I will be looking for candle formations and extra reasons on smaller time frames.  The overall potential risk:reward on this trade is a very impressive 1:5, so a good enough reason to take the trade also.

usdjpyweekly - triangle - 21.10.13USDJPY
Chart – Weekly
Triangle Break

I will be looking over the coming weeks for a potential triangle break which has the potential to result in a move of 980 pips. Of course, this could break either above or below, however, my bias is for it to break above.  Keep this one on your radar over the next little while.

The craziest day in the Forex news calendar – aka non-farm payroll – is happening tomorrow.  Usually this news comes out on the first Friday of every month. However, due to the US shutdown, the release of this all important jobs number has been delayed until tomorrow. This news announcement can cause wild swings in the market, so the safest bet is to wait until after the news announcement before entering trades. Keep an eye on www.forexfactory.com for up to the minute news announcements.

Take care out in the news mine field this week.

Happy trading



Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Sep 16

Trades on my radar for this week…

As we begin our new trading week we are greeted with large gaps at the market open. It is commonly known amongst traders that approximately 90% of these gaps will close at least 80% of the way.  Armed with this knowledge, we can use this to our advantage in our trading for this week.

I have a couple of trades on my radar. These particular trades follow a simple trend trading system. I affectionately call it my “Pip Generator” strategy. Basically, once a trend is in place, you wait for a retracement back into the ema’s and then enter the trade based on candlestick formations. If there is extra confluence with a support or resistance level, this will give you additional reasons to take the trade. The following examples will show you what trades I have my eye on over the next few days and where I will be looking to enter them.


4H Chart
Pip Generator Strategy

usdchfh4 - stt - tp 16.9.13I will look for a bearish candle set up ie. pin-bar reversal or doji candle, upon the close of the 4 hour candles.  If one of these bearish candle formations appears within the 10 & 21 ema channel, then I will look for extra confluence with the resistance line at .9289. As this pair opened with a gap this morning, it is more than likely that this gap will be filled, so I am anticipating price moving up towards this .9289 line.  When it does, and if there is a good candlestick formation, then I will enter the trade on the close of the 4 hour candle. The area I will be looking to short this pair is highlighted in yellow. This is a longer term trading system, so I will be prepared to hold this trade for a few days, or longer, if the trend remains in place.


4H Chart
Pip Generator Strategy

eurusdh4 - stt - trade plan 16.9.13When price retraces back within the 10 & 21 emas and has the extra confluence of the 1.3300 support level, I will look for a bullish candle formation at the close of the 4 hour candles. Once again, I am looking to enter long at the yellow highlighted area if a bullish candle formation appears. My target will be the resistance level at 1.3394.



gbpusdh4 - stt - trade plan 16.9.134H Chart
Pip Generator Strategy

I will look for a retracement back into the 10 & 21 emas and also with the support level of 1.5834 as confluence.  The highlighted area is the area I will be looking for a bullish candle formation to enter this long.


usdjpydaily 2 - 16.9.13Daily Chart
Long @ 98.66
Target 1 @ 100.00
Target 2 @ 100.56
Stop Loss @ 98.24
Risk:Reward = 1:3

I will be looking to buy the UDJPY at 98.66 as it is a support level, 50% fib and 55 ema ie. multiple reasons.  Stop Loss is just below 61.8% fib and the trendline. The risk to reward ratio for target 1 is 1:3 and for target 2 is 1:4.5, so extra reasons to take the trade.


audjpydaily - tp - 16.9.13Daily Chart
Long @ 90.00
Target 1 @ 91.82
Target 2 @ 93.50
Stop Loss @ 89.10
Risk:Reward 1 = 1:2
Risk:Reward 2 = 1:4

Reasons for this trade:  strong support level, whole number, 50% fib

These should be enough trade ideas to get you started for the beginning of the week. I will update you as the week progresses.

Happy Trading!







Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Sep 10

Trade Plan for Week of 9 September

Now that the summer dull-drums are over (trader speak for quiet markets, when many traders are on holidays and there is less liquidity in the markets), there definitely appears to be some movement coming back into the currency pairs.  These are the trades I have on my radar for this week:


nzdusddaily - 10.9.13Sell @ .8065
Initial Target = .8000
Stop Loss = .8088
Risk:Reward = 1:4

Reasons for trade:  at 78.6% fib, 200 ema on daily, 55 ema on weekly, great risk to reward ratio

I will enter the trade from the 4 hour chart based on bearish candle formations.

Alternative:  If this pair fails to hold at the .8078 level, I will wait for a clear break above this level, followed by a pullback, to go long. My target for this trade will be .8160


gbpusddaily - 10.9.13Long @ 1.5600
Target = 1.5747
SL = 1.5560
Risk:Reward = 1:3.6

Reasons:  intersection of trendline, support line, 23.6% fib and is a whole number, great risk to reward ratio



usdjpydaily - 10.9.13Long @ 100.00
Target 1 = 100.84
Target 2 = 101.52
SL = 99.59
Risk:Reward Target 1 = 1:2
Risk:Reward Target 2 = 1:3.7

Reasons:  break of support followed by pullback, major support line, whole number, 23.6% fib just below

Let’s see how the week pans out now that some of the momentum is returning to the markets.

Happy trading!






Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment
Sep 09

4 Hour Work Week

Welcome to a new week my fellow traders!

As I begin my week reflecting on my trades for the past weeks, I also reflect on what turned out to be a very peaceful view from my office this week.  I must commend Cairo on their exceptionally calm and peaceful protests the past two Fridays!  What I was anticipating to be a large and potentially violent demonstration, actually turned out to be a few thousand protesters voicing their views, in what resulted in a relatively peaceful gathering (photo below taken from the balcony of our building).  According to The Egyptian Gazette, only 8 people were killed in clashes Friday week, across the whole of Egypt.  This is a huge improvement from the 1,000+ who have sadly lost their lives over the past few weeks, and many of these have unfortunately been in our “front yard” :-(

IMG-20130830-WA0001Regrettably over the past week, the emphasis appears to have bypassed protests and moved on to disruptions through bombings.  The Egyptian Interior Minister was very lucky to survive an assassination bid last week after a bomb was detonated near his house in Nasr City, Cairo.  Although I never heard, nor personally saw the devastation after this blast, Nasr City is our neighbourhood – this is all just a little bit too close for comfort!  Sadly, reports were that 2 people died and 24 were injured in this attack.

I hope to be able to report on some brighter news from my neighbourhood next week :-)

Enough of what’s been happening around “my office”, let’s get down to business and discuss the results from within my trading office…

The two trades I had my eye on in my previous post were the AUDJPY and EURUSD.  I took both the trades (based on the reasoning discussed in my post).  This was the outcome…


audjpy - ig - 26 aug 2013 - target hitI set the order to short this pair at 88.71, just prior to going to bed.  This is the perfect time to set an order for an “end of day” trade, since the daily candle had just closed in London.  My technical analysis was telling me sell the AUDJPY, with the indications being that this was a high probability set up.  My order was triggered the next day, and my predetermined target was subsequently hit on day 2.  121 pips profit (over a week’s worth of profit) achieved in 2 days from one order that I set and left.  This little gem of a strategy is perfect for those of you who are too busy to be checking computer screens all day and/or who work full time.  About 15 mins work analysing and setting the order for this pair, which resulted in a week’s worth of profit!  Brings new meaning to the “4 Hour Work Week” :-)


The second trade I took that week was the EURUSD, for the aforementioned reasons in my previous post.  This was a trade which didn’t go according to my plan.  Oh well, you can’t win them all, and especially when it comes to Forex!  Losing is part and parcel of trading and should always be factored into your strategy.  The idea is to try and ensure that your winning trades reward you with at least double what your losing trades take away from you.

eurusd 4h 28 aug 2013 - stopped outThank God I had my stop loss in place! If not, I could have been in a much worse position (as indicated by the last candle).  A stop loss is mandatory in every single one of my trades and this has ended up saving my butt many a time. It’s there to save your butt also – make sure you utilise it!!

The up arrow indicates where I entered the trade (at the green dashed line) – after the pullback to the break of the triangle.  The down arrow is where my stop loss safely got me out of the trade (red dashed line), before I potentially could have ended up losing my shirt on the next candle.  The gold dashed line was my predetermined target.  I entered Long at 1.3391 and was stopped out at 1.3350 = 41 pips loss

Overall, at the end of the 30 August trading week, my total profit was 80 pips.  Not bad, considering this was realised only from two trades.

With the threat of a strategic strike on Syria, Non Farm Payroll, interest rate news and numerous other “red flag” news announcements, I chose to take a voluntary week off last week.  Sometimes the best trade is no trade at all.  It is a good idea to be well aware of when these important news announcements occur and to sit on your hands if need be during these times.  A great website which details all economic news and exactly when these news announcements are due out is:  http://www.forexfactory.com/  Checking this website should form a part of your daily trade planning strategy.  It’s an excellent resource – use it!

Bring on the 4 Hour (or less) Work Week this week…

Happy trading!



Posted in Trade Reviews, View from the Office (aka Travel) | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment
Aug 27

Trading Plan for the Week Ahead…

Life in Cairo is certainly a lot quieter this week than of late :-)  Maybe that is helped by the curfew, which is still being strictly policed on the streets.  Curfew time now 9 pm to 6 am.  Certainly an improvement from the 7 pm curfew start time of the previous week.  Even when I was growing up in my early teenage years I never had a curfew of 9 pm!  Seems ludicrous to be forced to adhere to such an early curfew time at my age!!

As life is reverting back to some form of normality here, it’s time to get my trading back into my normal routine also.  My trading plan for the week ahead is as follows:


Daily Chart / End of Day Trade / Short

audjpy - ig - 26 aug 2013 - order placedI love this “end of day” strategy.  The set ups may not appear frequently, however, when they do you can usually set your order and walk away.  Great for those working full  time and who may only have a small amount of time for trading. The ideal set up for this strategy is depicted in the chart below – the pair is trending, the previous day’s candle is a doji which is located within the upper 2 envelopes, the 5 ema is below the 20 ema and the 200 ema.  As soon as the daily candle closes, I set my order – green = entry, red = stop loss, gold = target

ie Entry at 88.71, Stop at 89.48 and target at 87.50

I see there is no news due out over the next day which could affect my trade, I set my order as above and walk away.


4 Hour Chart / Long / Triangle Break

eurusd 4h 28 aug 2013 - entryI will be looking for an entry long after the break of the triangle on the 4 hourly chart – around 1.3380.  I will wait for a pullback to this level before entering.  This area is also a weekly pivot point.  My stop will be just below the 55 ema with my target being the recent high.



These are two trades which I have on my radar for the start of the week.  If I have some other trades lining up for the latter part of the week I will provide further details in another post.

Bring on the pips!

Happy trading





Posted in Trading Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments